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| NNPC Oil Rig in Niger Delta Under FG Directive |
The Federal Government gave a clear order to NNPCL on May 7, 2025. Heineken Lokpobiri relayed this mandate at the Africa Energy Forum in Houston. He said output must grow beyond current rates by year‑end. Lokpobiri noted that the initial goal of two million bpd rose to 2.5 million bpd. He stressed that this revised target is within reach. He spoke of tackling the key hurdles to oil output. His call marks a fresh push in Nigeria’s oil plan.
NNPCL’s latest report shows it hit 1.8 million bpd recently. The firm attributed this rise to better security and field work. Africa’s top oil producer saw output average 1.5 million bpd this year. That level fell from its 2.2 million bpd capacity due to theft and underinvestment.
October 2024 data from OPEC pegged Nigeria’s crude output at 1.3 million bpd. The country often counts 250,000 bpd of condensate in its totals. Official regulator figures put output even lower at 1.32 million bpd.
Security moves cut theft sharply, lifting output. Operation Delta Sanity drove theft down to 5,000 bpd. That effort helped production inch up to 1.8 million bpd. Local and federal forces worked to seal pipelines and catch vandals.
NNPCL and its partners credited joint ventures for the rise to 1.8 million bpd. They said field fixes and patrols made the boost possible. The company aims for 2 million bpd by late 2024.
Despite a capacity of 2.2 million bpd, Nigeria rarely hits that mark. Aging wells and pipeline issues often drag output down. Theft and sabotage still plague key oil regions. Underinvestment in older fields has deepened the problem.
Remarkably, Nigeria once pumped 2.5 million bpd during the COVID‑19 slump. That spike showed the nation can beat limits when push comes to shove. It came with minimal spending but heavy security.
President Tinubu first set a 2 million bpd goal for NNPCL. He tied that target to the 2025 budget. That plan assumed $75 per barrel. Now price shifts have put revenue under strain.
The minister then lifted the goal to 2.5 million bpd. He told new NNPCL leaders to chase that mark by December. Lokpobiri called it a realistic aim. He noted that past leaps came with less support.
Lokpobiri spoke at a forum on green minerals and clean energy. He said Nigeria must grow oil to fund a wider clean shift. He stressed that boosting output now can help pay for future change.
Nigeria’s budget relies heavily on oil. With prices below forecasts, revenue is at risk. The FG will focus on salary, debt, and security payments. NNPCL must cut costs and lift output.
The upstream regulator NUPRC cut theft estimates from 15,000 bpd to 5,000 bpd. It also fixed over 677 pipeline breaks and destroyed 4,124 illegal stills. Those moves added roughly 300,000 bpd of restored flow.
The FG urged IOCs to invest more in onshore and offshore assets. It warned idle well owners to act or lose licenses. This drive aims to draw $1.45 billion in JV funds and $1.11 billion in PSC projects.
A NUPRC forecast shows Nigeria could average 2.066 million bpd in H1 2025. That marks a rise from last year’s 1.7 million bpd. It stems from Project One Million Barrels and new refinery needs.
On April 2, 2025, President Tinubu named ex‑Shell exec Bayo Ojulari as NNPC GCEO. Ojulari must push reforms and revive idle refineries. His team must also hit oil and gas targets by 2027 and 2030.
NNPC aims for 8 billion scf/d of gas by 2027. That boosts power, petrochem, and industrial uses. Gas promises a steadier revenue stream than crude alone.
Fields like Otakikpo rose from 10,000 bpd to 20,000 bpd. New rigs climbed to 50 from 20 in two years. Local firms now share more of the output gains.
Still, underinvestment and tanker leaks hold back growth. Old pipelines often spring fresh leaks. Some wells need multi‑million‑dollar repairs.
Tech tools like drones and smart meters help spot leaks fast. Armed UAVs now watch the coast and creeks. Joint task forces share live data on oil flows.
The Petroleum Industry Act and reforms lured $17 billion FDI in six months. Investors eyed gas, refineries, and marginal fields. PIA’s clear rules and cheaper approvals made that possible.
Some analysts warn the 2.5 million bpd goal may be too high. Past forecasts fell short due to delayed projects. Market watchers urge caution on lofty production promises.
Global oil prices slipped to four‑year lows in May 2025. OPEC+ output hikes spurred fresh supply fears. Brent crude fell to $60 a barrel, undercutting FG revenue hopes.
Yet many see the push as vital for Nigeria’s future. More oil can fund schools, roads, and power projects. It can also back green energy paths. Stakeholders say this step matters now.
By balancing speed and care, Nigeria aims to grow output without new risk. Open talk among gov, IOCs, and communities can ease tensions. A clear, shared plan may keep pipelines safe and wells running.
The FG’s year‑end push marks a key test for NNPCL. Will it hit 2.5 million bpd? Success could reshape revenue and growth. Missed marks may spur fresh fixes and calls for change.
Nigeria’s oil story now hangs on this bold directive. Time and real work will show if targets turn real. For now, the nation watches and waits.