The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there is a broad understanding inside the White House that the party has already lost. The official did not specify which chambers the party expects to lose. Midterm elections for all 435 House seats and about one-third of Senate seats are scheduled for November.
Historical data supports a difficult environment for the president’s party. According to the Brookings Institution, the party holding the White House has lost an average of 28 House seats in midterm elections since World War II. The president’s party has lost Senate seats in most midterms as well.
Recent public polling shows a similar pattern. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week found that 47% of registered voters said they would vote for the opposition party’s candidate for Congress. Only 40% said they would vote for the president’s party. The poll surveyed 1,005 adults and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
The White House official’s comment is an unusually early concession. Most senior officials avoid predicting defeat months before an election. The official said the internal consensus is based on low approval ratings for the president and high voter concern about the economy.
Other administration officials have not publicly agreed with that assessment. The White House press secretary, in a statement to reporters, said the president is focused on governing and that the election is not over. The press secretary pointed to recent legislative wins as evidence that the party can still rally its base.
Political analysts say that midterm elections are often a referendum on the sitting president. A report from the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, rates 45 House seats as toss-ups. The report gives the opposition party an advantage in 25 of those seats based on current polling and fundraising data.
The White House official’s remark has drawn attention inside the party. Some Democratic strategists, speaking privately, said such pessimism could hurt voter turnout. Others said it reflects plain reality and could motivate donors to spend more before November.
The midterm elections will be held on November 8. Early voting begins in some states as early as late September.