In a post on Truth Social on April 20, Trump said the US was “winning a war, by a lot” and that the country’s military performance had been “amazing”. He said Iran’s navy had been “completely wiped out,” its air force had been driven from runways, and the country lacked anti-missile defenses. Trump also claimed that a US naval blockade was costing Iran $500 million per day. He accused several major American news outlets of publishing inaccurate reports that made the US appear to be losing the war.
The president’s comments came as diplomatic efforts to extend the ceasefire remained uncertain. A high-level US negotiating team, including Vice President JD Vance, was scheduled to travel to Pakistan for a second round of talks with Iranian officials. The first round of talks in Islamabad ended earlier in April without an agreement. A Pakistani source involved in the discussions told Reuters on April 21 that there was momentum for talks to resume on April 22, and that Trump could attend in person or virtually if a deal was reached.
Trump’s assertion of victory contradicted assessments from US intelligence and military officials. A report published by The New York Times on April 19, citing anonymous US officials, said Iran still holds a significant portion of its military arsenal. According to the report, Iran retains about 40 percent of its prewar drone arsenal and more than 60 percent of its missile launchers. Officials said Iran had recovered more than 100 launcher systems from caves and bunkers since the ceasefire began on April 8. The report also said that once recovery efforts are completed, Iran could reclaim as much as 70 percent of its prewar arsenal.
The conflict between the US and Iran began on February 28, 2026, when the US launched major combat operations against Iran. Since then, an estimated 3,068 US and Israeli airstrikes have hit targets in Iran, destroying more than 7,500 buildings and killing at least 1,701 civilians, according to data cited by the Peace Research Institute Oslo. Nearly 50 high-ranking military and political leaders have also been killed.
Tensions escalated further over the weekend. On April 19, US forces intercepted and seized an Iranian cargo ship, the Touska, in the Gulf of Oman. Iranian forces responded by launching drone strikes on US vessels. Iran’s foreign ministry condemned the seizure and demanded the immediate release of the ship and its crew. The incident threatened to unravel the fragile ceasefire just days before its expiration.
Trump has also made clear his broader objectives for Iran. In a separate Truth Social post on April 20, he called for regime change in Iran, saying the country could have a “great and prosperous future” under new leadership. He dismissed reports that he had been pushed into the conflict by Israel, saying the October 7, 2023 attacks had reinforced his view that Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon.
Negotiations between the US and Iran have been complicated by disagreements over the country’s nuclear program. The US has proposed a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear activities, while Iran has offered a five-year pause, according to a New York Times report cited by Xinhua. Trump told the John Fredericks Media Network on April 20 that Iran would negotiate, but reiterated that Washington would not allow Tehran to develop a nuclear weapon.
As the ceasefire deadline approached, oil markets reflected the uncertainty. Brent crude futures fell 54 cents to $94.94 a barrel on April 21, while US West Texas Intermediate dropped $1.11 to $88.50, following earlier gains on fears of renewed fighting.