Russia is earning an additional $100 million to $150 million per day from its oil sales following the outbreak of the US-Israel war with Iran, according to energy analysts and shipping data.
The conflict, which began on February 28 with strikes that killed Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway handles about a fifth of the world's daily oil supply . Major Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have been forced to cut production by an estimated 670,000 barrels per day as export terminals fill with unsold crude .
Brent crude prices briefly touched $120 per barrel on March 9 before settling near $90, up from about $70 before the war began .
For Russia, the price surge comes alongside a temporary easing of Western sanctions enforcement. The United States last week granted India a 30-day waiver to continue purchasing Russian crude that was already at sea . India has been one of the largest buyers of Russian oil since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Henning Gloystein, an energy director at Eurasia Group, said Russia is now selling its海运 crude for about $90 per barrel, compared with roughly $50 before the conflict . The discount on Russian Urals crude relative to international benchmarks has narrowed significantly and at times disappeared entirely .
Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air shows Russia earned approximately €6 billion ($6.9 billion) from fossil fuel exports in the first two weeks of March, a 14 percent increase from February's daily average .
The revenue boost comes after a difficult period for Russian energy exports. The International Energy Agency reported that Russia's oil export revenues fell to $9.5 billion in February, the lowest level since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began four years ago . Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries had reduced processing capacity by about 300,000 barrels per day .
Chris Weafer, chief executive of Macro-Advisory consultancy in Moscow, said the Iran war is effectively saving Russia from potential budget problems. "It is a double whammy positive," Weafer told Newsweek. "The market price of oil and gas is a lot higher and Russia does not have to offer discounts to Asian buyers who have been nervous about sanctions" .
Asian buyers have been central to Russia's energy exports since European markets largely closed following the Ukraine invasion. China and India account for approximately half of Russia's oil revenues . With Middle East supply constrained, both countries have increased purchases of Russian crude .
The supply disruption in the Gulf is significant. Energy analyst Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee said Gulf producers affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure account for roughly 670,000 barrels per day of lost production . Qatar, the world's second-largest liquefied natural gas exporter, declared force majeure on some shipments after Iranian attacks damaged facilities .
Russia's production capacity remains limited by years of sanctions and infrastructure damage from the Ukraine war. Energy analyst Carole Nakhle of Crystol Energy said these constraints place an upper limit on how much Russia can profit from the crisis . Shipping and insurance restrictions also continue to affect Russian trade.
The Trump administration has signaled willingness to consider further sanctions relief if needed to stabilize global energy markets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the India waiver as a "stopgap measure" to address immediate supply pressures .
Some members of Congress have criticized the approach. Representatives Sam Liccardo and Ruben Gallego wrote to Bessent saying the administration's policies have allowed Russia to profit from oil reserves previously constrained by sanctions .
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol cautioned European nations against considering a return to Russian gas imports, calling such a move "economically and politically wrong" . Europe has reduced Russian oil imports from 44 percent of total supply in 2021 to about 7 percent currently .
Russian President Vladimir Putin told a cabinet meeting on March 10 that Russia would boost oil exports to "friendly countries" and take advantage of turmoil in global energy markets . Putin has also signaled willingness to resume energy cooperation with European customers if they seek it .
The duration of Russia's revenue windfall remains uncertain. President Trump told CBS News on March 9 that he believes the war with Iran is "pretty much over," comments that contributed to oil prices falling back from their peak . Analysts say it could take weeks or months for Gulf production and shipping to return to normal levels even if fighting ends .