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| Jonathan warns against electoral manipulation in Africa. |
Former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan has issued a stark warning: African democracy risks collapse unless stakeholders reform electoral systems to remove underperforming leaders through free and fair elections. He identified electoral manipulation as the continent’s greatest democratic threat .
Jonathan spoke at the 2025 Goodluck Jonathan Foundation (GJF) Democracy Dialogue in Accra, Ghana. He stated that when democracies fail to meet basic needs, desperation can pave the way for authoritarianism. “If we had proper elections, a leader who fails to perform would be voted out. But in our case, people use the system to perpetuate themselves even when the people don’t want them,” he said .
His remarks highlight a growing crisis of legitimacy across Africa. Citizens increasingly doubt whether their votes can effectively remove non-performing leaders. This mistrust stems from widespread electoral manipulation, institutional bias, and rising authoritarian practices .
Electoral Manipulation: Africa’s “Biggest Threat”
Jonathan emphasized that electoral manipulation remains the primary obstacle to meaningful democracy in Africa. When leaders manipulate processes to stay in power, they deny citizens the right to choose their representatives. This erodes public trust and fuels political instability .
Recent examples support his concerns. In Gabon, a 2023 election widely considered fraudulent led to a military coup that ended the Bongo family’s 60-year rule. Despite international condemnation of the coup, many Gabonese citizens celebrated the ouster of a dynasty accused of corruption and self-enrichment .
Zimbabwe’s 2023 elections also faced allegations of rigging and voter suppression. Incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa was declared winner, but the opposition rejected the results. The country continues to suffer from hyperinflation and economic mismanagement .
The High Cost of Democratic Failure
Africans want more than periodic elections. They demand security, jobs, quality education, healthcare, and dignity. When leaders fail to deliver these basic needs, citizens become disillusioned with democracy itself .
This disillusionment is reflected in declining voter participation. The proportion of Africans who did not vote in recent national elections rose from 18.2% in 2001 to 24.7% in 2023 .
Poor election quality also contributes to military interventions. Coups in Niger, Gabon, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Sudan often cite electoral fraud as justification. While military takeovers are not the solution, they highlight the deep crisis of democratic legitimacy .
Five Key Challenges to African Elections
1. Lack of Trust in Electoral Bodies: Between 2011 and 2023, the number of Africans with little or no confidence in their national electoral commissions rose from 41% to 55%. Appointment processes often exclude opposition parties and favor ruling party loyalists .
2. Weak Transparency: Electoral management bodies frequently fail to build consensus on timelines, campaign restrictions, and party funding. Incumbents often control these processes, raising suspicions of bias .
3. High Costs: The average cost of an election in Africa is $4.20 per capita—twice the global average and higher than in Europe, North America, and Australia. Expensive filing fees and campaign budgets disadvantage less-resourced candidates .
4. Electoral Violence: The rise of armed vigilantes associated with political parties intimidates voters and suppresses choices. State security services sometimes intimidate opposition strongholds, as seen in Nigeria and Zimbabwe .
5. Digital Threats: Disinformation, hacking, and internet shutdowns are increasingly used to skew elections. AI-generated deepfakes and misinformation campaigns undermine electoral integrity .
The Path to Reform: Accountability and Inclusion
Jonathan advocated for intergenerational governance—combining youth energy with elder wisdom. He praised rising youth participation but stressed the need for guidance from experienced leaders .
Ghana’s President John Mahama emphasized that democracy requires active protection. He called for stronger institutions, development, media freedom, and citizen education. “Democracy dies when citizens lose faith, when leaders abandon integrity, and when institutions succumb to capture,” he said .
Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo declared Africa’s current democratic model unsustainable without urgent reform .
Digital Threats: New Frontier for Election Manipulation
Beyond traditional manipulation methods, digital threats pose growing risks. AI-enabled cyberattacks and information manipulation campaigns can destabilize electoral processes. Bad actors use AI to generate malware, create deepfakes, and target specific communities with tailored disinformation .
In Slovakia, a fake AI-generated audio interview showed a top candidate claiming to have rigged the election. In the United States, AI-powered robocalls impersonated President Biden to discourage voting .
These technologies are particularly damaging in fragile democracies. They undermine trust in institutions and distort public discourse .
Recommendations for Strengthening African Democracy
· Independent Electoral Management: Appointment processes should include opposition parties and stakeholders. Mozambique’s model of equitable political party representation in election bodies offers a best practice .
· Cost Reduction: Laws should limit campaign periods and expenditure ceilings. Vote-buying must be prohibited and punished .
· Violence Prevention: Professional security services need adequate resources and apolitical leadership. Parliamentary oversight can reduce executive interference .
· Digital Resilience: African countries must raise awareness about misinformation and enforce laws against disinformation. Media literacy programs can help citizens critically analyze online information .
· Federal Support: While focusing on Africa, it is worth noting that reduced federal support for election security—as seen in recent U.S. actions—can leave systems vulnerable. States and civil society must fill these gaps .
The GJF Democracy Dialogue united African leaders in calling for democracy beyond elections. Participants emphasized accountability, service, inclusiveness, and discipline in governance .
ECOWAS Commission President Dr. Omar Touray and Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah were among those who stressed that democracy must deliver tangible benefits to citizens .
As Jonathan noted, “Our people want to enjoy their freedoms. They want their votes to count during elections. They want equitable representation and inclusivity. They want good education. Our people want security. They want access to good healthcare. They want jobs. They want dignity” .
The future of African democracy depends on meeting these basic needs through genuine democratic practices that allow citizens to hold leaders accountable.