How Lagos Will Become the World’s Largest City

 


Lagos skyline at dusk with city lights by the water
Bill gates



Lagos’s rise from a modest fishing town to a bustling metropolis shows Africa’s urban surge. In June 2025, Bill Gates spoke at the Goalkeepers event in Lagos. He said the city “will, by far, become the largest city in the world.” Gates sees this growth as proof of Africa’s youthful energy and drive .


Today, Lagos houses roughly 20 million people. That makes it Africa’s biggest city . Yet by century’s end, experts foresee Lagos swelling to nearly 100 million inhabitants . This shift will pass Tokyo, Delhi, and Shanghai.


Rapid migration fuels Lagos’s boom. Farmers and youth leave rural areas for work. Over 2,000 new residents arrive each day. This influx strains housing, roads, and schools. Yet it also sparks new markets and services.


A UN report projects 13 African megacities by 2100. Lagos tops the list with 88–100 million people. Kinshasa, Cairo, and Nairobi follow close behind. This marks a historic shift in global urban balance .


High birth rates add to growth. Nigeria’s fertility rate averages five children per woman. More births mean more young people living in the city. This youth bulge can drive innovation or deepen inequality if jobs don’t keep pace.


Gates stressed the need for health and education investment. He warned that youth potential hinges on today’s policy choices. He urged donors and governments to fund schools, clinics, and skills training .


Economic opportunity draws many to Lagos. It hosts Nigeria’s main port, a stock exchange, and Africa’s busiest airport. Finance, tech startups, and creative industries thrive. This economy lifts many out of poverty.


Yet families often live in crowded neighborhoods. Shanties rise on reclaimed land and flood plains. Access to water, power, and sanitation remains uneven. Slum upgrading and new housing schemes aim to help, but progress is slow.


Traffic jams plague major roads. The average commute stretches over two hours. Lagos built a light rail in 2023 and plans more lines. Bus corridors serve millions daily. Still, demand far outpaces supply .


Pollution worsens as cars and generators multiply. Air quality falls below WHO standards. Clean energy projects and stricter emissions rules could help. Solar power and electric buses offer promise.


Education sees gains but needs growth. Lagos runs public and private schools. Enrollment rose by 40% in a decade. Yet student-teacher ratios remain high in many areas. Investing in new schools and training is vital.


Healthcare faces similar pressures. New clinics opened across Lagos State. But malnutrition and infectious diseases persist in poor districts. Universal health coverage plans aim to fill gaps.


Infrastructure funding comes from public and private sources. Lagos floats bonds, loans, and public-private partnerships. Toll roads and power plants show investors’ interest. Yet debt levels must stay manageable.


Technology hubs sprout in Ikeja and Victoria Island. Startups tackle fintech, health tech, and logistics. Accelerators and incubators help young entrepreneurs scale ideas.


Scores of international firms set up offices here. They tap into consumer markets and talent pools. This foreign direct investment boosts jobs and skills transfer.


Urban planning shapes Lagos’s next phase. The Lagos Master Plan 2050 maps new districts, green spaces, and transport corridors. It seeks balanced growth across islands and mainland areas.


Climate change poses a big threat. Rising sea levels and floods endanger low-lying communities. The state builds sea walls and improves drainage. Mangrove restoration offers natural buffers.


Water demand will double by 2040. Lagos invests in pipelines, reservoirs, and treatment plants. Safe water access fights disease and supports industry.


Energy demand also climbs. The state expands power grids and promotes solar mini-grids. Partnerships with private firms aim to cut blackouts.


Waste grows with population. Lagos collects only 40% of trash. Recycling plants and waste-to-energy projects try to shrink landfills and pollution.


Public safety sees reforms. New CCTV networks and community policing reduce crime in some zones. Yet some areas still face insecurity at night.


Cultural life flourishes. Lagos hosts film festivals, music shows, and art fairs. Its Nollywood industry ranks among the world’s largest film producers.


Sports unite the city. Football stadiums draw tens of thousands. Community leagues keep youth active and teach teamwork.


Experts warn of growing pains. Without careful planning, Lagos could face gridlock, inequality, and resource shortages. Policymakers must act now.


Still, the city’s spirit shines. Entrepreneurs launch new ventures daily. Street markets teem with goods from across Nigeria and beyond.


Residents express pride in Lagos’s role as Africa’s heartbeat. They see challenges as chances to innovate and collaborate.


Bill Gates’s view reflects global interest. When he spoke of Lagos’s future, he highlighted its energy and potential. His words drew attention to Africa’s role in shaping tomorrow’s world.


Lagos’s path to 100 million people matters far beyond Nigeria. It will test how cities can grow without leaving people behind.


Success in Lagos could guide other fast-growing cities in Africa and Asia. Its lessons in planning, finance, and social policy will matter.


In the end, Lagos stands at a crossroads. It can build on its youth, commerce, and creativity. Or it can struggle under its own weight.


What happens here influences global trends in migration, urban design, and economic development. The world will watch how Lagos meets its future.


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